Estimation of Reproduction Number for Covid-19 with Statistical Correction of Notifications Delay

Authors

Keywords:

Reproduction number, Deconvolution, Notifications delay, Covid-19, Sars-CoV-2

Abstract

The pandemic of Covid-19 began in Brazil in February 2020. To evaluate the evolution of pandemics some metrics can be estimated, such as the reproduction number, Rt, and the basic reproduction number, R0. Due to the delay in the notifications, these estimates may present a bias. Taking the reported data, besides a sample of individuals who reported the day of symptoms onset, it is possible to estimate delay probabilities and to perform a deconvolution to correct the notifications' delay. In this work, it was performed a corrected estimate of Rt. This estimate is done based on the curve of notifications corrected through deconvolution. The approach is applied in three country cities and in the capital of Minas Gerais state. The behavior of Rt concerning the Minas Consciente program was evaluated. It was observed that the corrected Rt was more suitable to measure the effect of the program when compared to the raw Rt. When it was determined a more rigid mobility and activities regime by the program, it was observed a decrease in the median of the variation of the Rt of the cities studied.

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Author Biographies

Gabriela Pereira Barros, Federal University of São João del-Rei

Industrial Engineering student at Federal University of São João del-Rei - UFSJ. Scholarship at Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq). Published paper: Otimização da Furação Orbital para Obtenção de Furos em Polímero Reforçado por Fibra de Carbono in the 11st Congresso Brasileiro de Engenharia de Fabricação (COBEF), 2021.

Rafaela Pereira Barros, Presidente Antônio Carlos University

Law student at Presidente Antônio Carlos University – UNIPAC. Currently, she is an intern at a law office and voluntary conciliator at the Justice Court of Minas Gerais – TJMG, located in the Special Civil Court of the District of Barbacena. In the present paper Rafaela contributed to data collect to $Rt$ estimate through the epidemiological bulletins available on the websites of the local public government of the cities studied.

Everthon Souza de Oliveira, Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal Center for Technological Education of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Graduated in Electrical Engineering from the Federal University of São João Del-Rei (2009) and PhD. in electrical engineering from Federal University of Minas Gerais - UFMG (2021). Everthon is currently a professor at the Federal Center for Technological Education of Minas Gerais. Everthon has experience in the field of Electrical Engineering with an emphasis on Modeling and Control of Non-Linear Dynamic Systems and Fuzzy Systems. Everthon is interested in the following topics: Chaos in Electronic Circuits, UPS Synchronism, Control and Modeling by Fuzzy Logic, Adaptive Control.

Erivelton Geraldo Nepomuceno, Department of Electronic Engineering, Maynooth University, Ireland

Erivelton G. Nepomuceno received the BSc degree (UFSJ) and PhD (UFMG) in Electrical Engineering. He is currently Associate Professor at UFSJ and leader of Control and Modelling Group (GCOM). Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Imperial College London (2013-2014) and University of London - City (2020-). Researcher Visitor at Technological Institute of Aeronautics - ITA and Saint Petersburg Electrotechnical University. Associate editor for: 1) IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems II: Express Briefs; 2) Journal of Control, Automation and Electrical Systems; 3) IEEE Latin America Transactions. 4) Mathematical Problems in Engineering. Editorial Board: Neural Computing $\&$ Applications; Technical Committee: 1) Secretary (2021/2023) for Nonlinear Circuits and Systems - IEEE CAS; 2) System Identification and Data Science for Brazilian Association of Automatica; 3) IEEE Senior Member. Research topics: Computer Arithmetic, System Identification, Complex Networks, Intelligent Systems, Chaos, Cryptography. He has published 69 journal papers, 171 conference papers and he has reviewed 311 papers for 57 journals.

ROBSON BRUNO DUTRA PEREIRA, Centre for Inovation in Modelling and Optimization of Systems (CIMOS), Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Federal University of São João del-Rei, Brazil

Industrial Engineer from Federal University of Ouro Preto (2009) and Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Federal University of Itajubá (2017). Robson is Professor at the Federal University of São João del-Rei - UFSJ. Research topics: Process modeling and optimization through the design of experiments, multi-objective optimization, multivariate statistics, statistical process control, measurement systems analysis, statistical learning, and sthocastic processes.

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Published

2022-06-13

How to Cite

Pereira Barros, G. ., Pereira Barros, R., Souza de Oliveira, E., Nepomuceno, E. G. ., & DUTRA PEREIRA, R. B. . (2022). Estimation of Reproduction Number for Covid-19 with Statistical Correction of Notifications Delay. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 100(XXX). Retrieved from https://latamt.ieeer9.org/index.php/transactions/article/view/6276

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