Economic Analysis of Offshore Wind Farms: a Brazilian Case Study

Authors

Keywords:

Brazilian Electrical Sector, Economic Feasibility, Offshore Wind Energy, Renewable Energy

Abstract

The world demand for energy has grown significantly over the years and, therefore, imposes new challenges regarding the consumption and generation of electricity. In addition, the agreement negotiated by 195 countries in Paris during COP21 reinforces sustainable development from the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to contain global warming as of 2020. Renewable energy sources are essential for reducing dependence on fossil fuels, motivating countries, including Brazil, to seek measures to boost the use of green energies. In this scenario, wind energy stands out as one of the most promising ways to aggregate energy matrix requirements and environmental constraints. Within this prospect, the present study is presented, aiming to raise the most relevant topics about the development of offshore wind farms, in particular their economic and financial feasibility, which is evaluated through the construction of a cash flow and through the determination of viability indicators for a case study. The results obtained are presented and discussed in order to show a competitiveness analysis of offshore wind energy when compared with same nature projects worldwide and with other sources present in the Brazilian energy matrix.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Bruna Castello Branco Livi, Equinor Brasil e Energia

Bruna C. B. Livi e graduada em Engenharia de Producao PUC-Rio (2019). Desde 2018 atua como Analista de Planejamento e Controle de Projetos na Equinor Brasil e Energia.

Rachel Wilczek Rodrigues, ST Importacoes (Americanas s.a.)

Rachel W. Rodrigues e graduada em Engenharia de Producao pela PUC-Rio (2019). Atua na empresa ST Importacoes, do grupo Americanas s.a., com comercio exterior.

Fabio Batista, PUC-Rio

Fabio R. S. Batista e graduado em Engenharia Civil pela Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo (1999), mestre (2002) e doutor (2007) em Engenharia de Producao pela PUC-Rio. Desde 2001 e pesquisador do CEPEL e desde 2007 e professor da PUC-Rio.

Paula Maçaira, PUC-Rio

Paula Macaira e Professora Assistente do Departamento de Engenharia Industrial da PUC-Rio, com experiencia na area de Probabilidade e Estatistica Aplicada. Possui Graduacao em Estatistica (2012) pela Escola Nacional de Ciencias Estatisticas, Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrica (2015), Doutorado (2018) e Pos-Doutorado (2019) em Engenharia de Producao pela PUC-Rio.

References

“Global Energy & CO2 Status Report: The Latest Trend in Energy and Emissions in 2018”, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, Mar. 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-co2-status-report-2019#global-trends Accessed on: Set, 2020

“Clean Energy Investment Trends, 2019”, BloombergNEF, London, United Kingdom, Jan. 16, 2020.

“Plano da Operação Energética 2019-2023 – PEN 2019”, ONS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, 2019.

“Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2029”, MME/EPE, Brasília, DF, Brazil, 2019.

“Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil: Perspectivas e Caminhos para a Energia Eólica Marítima”, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, Rep. NT-EPE-PR-001/2020-r2, Apr. 30, 2020 [Online]. Available: https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao- 456/Roadmap_Eolica_Offshore_EPE_versao_R2.pdf Accessed on: Set, 2020.

“Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series”, IRENA, Bonn, NW, Germany, Jun. 2012.

S. Ede, K. Sukthaworn, “Offshore wind: Challenges and opportunities in an uncertain world”, CRA, London, United Kingdom, Nov. 2018.

F.R.S. Batista, A.F. Rodrigues, L.G.B. Marzano, A.C.G. Melo, “Assessing investment analysis of wind power generation projects in Brazil” in 19th Power System Computation Conference, Genoa, Italy, 2016.

A.C.G. Melo, A.F. Rodrigues, F.R.S. Batista, A.F. Rodrigues, L.G.B. Marzano, M.E. Maceira, “Dominant Contracting Strategies for Hydropower Projects Considering Inflow Uncertainties – Application to the Brazilian Case” in Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power System - PMAPS, Boise, Idaho, USA, 2018.

M. Vieira, B et. al, "European offshore wind capital cost trends up to 2020", Energy Policy, vol. 129, pp. 1364-1371, Jun. 2019, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.036.

P. M. Guardabassi, E. M. Monteiro, J. D. Cho, F. Loes, “Estimação de custo de capital regulatório: uma visão multisetorial e multi-países” in XXV Seminário Nacional de Produção e Transmissão de Energia Elétrica - SNPTEE, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil, 2019.

G.X. Fortunato et. al., “Custo de capital próprio em mercados emergentes: uma abordagem empírica no Brasil com o downside risk”, RAM – Revista de Administração Mackenzie, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 92-116, Oct. 2009. DOI: 10.1590/S1678-69712010000100005.

“Relatório de Análise de Impacto Regulatório nº 3/2018-SRM/ANEEL”, ANEEL, Brasília, DF, Brasil, 2018.

EMBI+ Risco Brasil, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA, [Online]. Available: http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ExibeSerie.aspx?serid=40940&module=M Accessed on: Set, 2020.

F. Maciel, “Ibama prepara agenda regulatória para eólica offshore”, EPBR, Sep. 7, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://epbr.com.br/ibama-prepara-agenda-regulatoria-para-eolica-offshore/

M.E.P. Maceira, L.A. Terry, F.S. Costa, J.M. Damázio, A.C.G. Melo, “Chain of Optimization Models for Setting the Energy Dispatch and Spot Price in the Brazilian System” in 14th PSCC, Seville, Spain, 2002.

M.E.P. Maceira, D.D.J. Penna, A.L. Diniz, R.J. Pinto, A.C.G. Melo, C.V. Vasconcellos, C.B. Cruz, "Twenty Years of Application of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming in Official and Agent Studies in Brazil – Main Features and Improvements on the NEWAVE Model" in 20th PSCC, Dublin, Ireland, 2018.

A.L. Diniz, F.S. Costa, M.E. Maceira, T.N. Santos, L.C.B. Dos Santos, R.N. Cabral, "Short/Mid-Term Hydrothermal Dispatch and Spot Pricing for Large-Scale Systems-the Case of Brazil," in 2018 Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC), Dublin, 2018, pp. 1-7, DOI: 10.23919/PSCC.2018.8442897.

Ficha de caracterização de atividade – FCA, Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e Recursos Naturais Renováveis - IBAMA, 2018 [Online]. Available: https://servicos.ibama.gov.br/siga/empreendedor/arquivo-shp/download-pdf-fca/id/75959 Accessed on: Set, 2020.

C-Power, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://www.c-power.be/index.php/project-phase-1/overview Accessed on: Set, 2020.

S. Pfenninger and I. Staffel, “Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data”, Energy 114, pp. 1251-1265, Nov. 2016, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.060

S. Pfenninger and I. Staffel, “Using Bias-Corrected Reanalysis to Simulate Current and Future Wind Power Output”, Rep. Energy 114, pp. 1224-1239, Nov. 2016, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.068.

Finem - Geração de Energia, BNDES. [Online]. Available: https://www.bndes.gov.br/wps/portal/site/home/financiamento/produto/bndes-finem-energia. Accessed on: Set, 2020.

Procedimentos de Regulação Tarifária: Submódulo 12.3: Custo de Capital da Geração, Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica - ANEEL, Brasília, DF, Brazil, Revisão 1.0, Apr. 2014.

F. Judge et. al, “A lifecycle financial analysis model for offshore wind farms”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 103, pp. 370-383, Apr. 2019, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.12.045.

“Regras de Comercialização: Cálculo do Desconto Aplicado à TUSD/TUST”, CCEE, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://www2.aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/audiencia/arquivo/2017/059/documento/15_-_calculo_do_desconto_aplicado_%C3%A0_tusdtust_2018.1.0__(jan-18)_-_minuta.pdf Accessed on: Set, 2020.

“Manual de Controle Patrimonial do Setor Elétrico MCPSE”, ANEEL, Brasília, DF, Brazil, 2015.

“Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2027”, MME/EPE, Brasília, DF, Brazil, 2018.

A. Damodaran, “Betas by Sector (US)”. [Online]. Available: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html.

Published

2021-08-25

How to Cite

Castello Branco Livi, B., Wilczek Rodrigues, R., Batista, F., & Maçaira, P. (2021). Economic Analysis of Offshore Wind Farms: a Brazilian Case Study. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 20(1), 32–40. Retrieved from https://latamt.ieeer9.org/index.php/transactions/article/view/4966