Economic and Risk Analysis of Small-Scale PV Systems in Brazil

Abstract

Significant proliferation of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems have been verified in Brazil in the last years, mainly for household customers due to the creation of the normative resolution nº 482/2012. The technical impacts of small-scale PV systems on distribution systems has been widely investigated by
literature. Nevertheless, less attention has been paid to the economical evaluation of these investment projects. In most cases, the economic analysis and the decision-making process are undertaken considering only a few set of indicators, highlighting the Payback, Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of
Return (IRR). Most part of analysis does not take into account the risks and uncertainties involved in the appraisal evaluation. Based on this context, the main objective of this paper is to provide a wider economic evaluation of distributed photovoltaic generation systems for household consumers using the Extended Multi-Index Methodology and the Monte Carlo Simulation. The investigation presented in this paper includes the analysis for different regions in Brazil considering the current regulatory structure of the Brazilian electricity sector. Throughout the methodology presented, the study aims to contribute to the sizing and to the economic analysis of photovoltaic power systems connected to the network in any region of the country. Findings of this study indicated that the economic viability of small-scale PV systems in Brazil depends primarily of the energy tariff and the solar radiation index and the probability of viability is higher for the Northeast of the country, considering the regions evaluated.