A Future-Looking Methodology for Estimating CO2 Emissions Reductions Linked to Transmission Projects That Increase Renewable Generation Capacity
Keywords:
Energy transition, Variable renewable generation, Power transmission expansion, Reduction in CO2 emissionsAbstract
This paper introduces a methodology that allows estimating, in a future time horizon, the reductions in systemic CO2 emissions associated with transmission projects that allow increasing the dispatch of renewable generation in a given region. This methodology relies on stochastic dual dynamic programming, and by providing quantitative results, reinforces the fundamental role of transmission expansion in the transition towards a scenario of increasingly sustainable grids. This work also presents a case study that consists of estimating the reduction of emissions involved with transmission projects in Southeast Brazil that will enable the flow of +615 MW of photovoltaic and +261 MW of biomass thermal generation, in a future horizon covering eight years. The main results are that the new transmission projects contribute to an average net reduction of about 1.13 million tons of CO2 emissions over the horizon and that, in less than four years, these projects will offset the emissions from their implementation and construction.
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