Simulation as a Tool to Mitigate Effort Estimation Risk in Software Projects

Abstract

The role of project managers has become crucial to the success of software development companies, it is imperative to understand customer requirements while address business needs. In this context, the present work aims to present simulation as a strategy to mitigate fails in software development effort estimation. In doing so, it will activate an outstanding project manager's asset for risk management. This study used historical data of 181 project from a software company and the simulation package ARENA, to model and evaluation. Results point that the current method of project effort estimation - based on empirical feeling-based estimates of its employees - should be improved with the approach of continuous simulation. The modeling of this simulation provided a better understanding of efforts ranges applied in software developments on this company, and, most important, the amount of risk taken on each total effort estimative. This simulator attends the prerogatives of the project risk management area, being able to support decisions regarding schedule, resources bottlenecks and risk taken.