SEIR Subregion Model Analysis: a case study of Curitiba
Keywords:Covid-19, SEIR models, subregion models, hospital capacity, health system, epidemic models
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was identified first on December 30, 2019, in Wuhan City, China. In a short time period thousands of infectious cases were reported in the world, and the hospital capacity was exceeded or saturated in some countries. For this reason, mathematical models were largely proposed to estimate the progression of Covid-19 sicky and its impact in decisions to mitigate this progression. This paper propose a modified “Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered” (SEIR) model to describe the comportment of the Covid-19 epidemic, based in characteristics of subregions. It was applicated in data of city of Curitiba, Brazil and showed the best and worst scenarios to estimate the saturate and exceeded states on health system.
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