# SEIR Subregion Model Analysis: a case study of Curitiba

## Keywords:

Covid-19, SEIR models, subregion models, hospital capacity, health system, epidemic models

## Abstract

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was identified first in December of 2019, in Wuhan City, China. In a short period, thousands of infectious cases were reported in the world, and the hospital capacity was exceeded or saturated in some countries. For this reason, mathematical models were largely proposed to estimate the progression of Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on decisions to mitigate this progression. This paper proposes a modified “Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered” (SEIR) model to describe the behavior of the Covid-19 epidemic, based on characteristics of subregions. It was applied in data of the city of Curitiba, Brazil, and showed the best and worst scenarios to estimate the saturate and exceeded states on the health system.

## Author Biographies

### Hellen Cristina Spengler, Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR)

Hellen Cristina Spengler e Mestre em Metodos Numericos em Engenharia (2017) e atualmente Doutoranda em Metodos Numericos em Engenharia pela UFPR. Suas principais areas de pesquisas sao: Pesquisa Operacional e metodos heuristicos. Gustavo Valentim Loch e Doutor (2014) e Mestre (2010) em Pesquisa Operacional pela UFPR. Possui graduacao em Matematica Industrial (2007) pela UFPR. Atua nos seguintes temas: Otimizacao combinatoria, Problema de Transporte e Engenharia da Qualidade. Cassius Tadeu Scarpin e Doutor (2012) e Mestre (2007) em Pesquisa Operacional pela UFPR. E graduado em Licenciatura em Matematica (2002) e em Engenharia de Producao (2010). Possui experiencia na area de Engenharia de Producao, com interesse em Pesquisa Operacional e Logistica.

### G. V. Loch, Federal University of Paraná

Gustavo Valentim Loch is PhD (2014) and Master (2010) in Operational Research at UFPR. Graduated in Industrial Mathematics (2007) at UFPR. Works on the following themes: Combinatorial Optimization, Transport Problem and Quality Engineering.

### C. T. Scarpin, Federal University of Paraná

Cassius Tadeu Scarpin is PhD (2012) and Master (2007) in Operational Research at UFPR. He graduated in Mathematics (2002) and in Production Engineering (2010). Has experience in Production Engineering, with an interest in Operations Research and Logistics.

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2021-06-08

## How to Cite

Spengler, H. C., Valentim Loch, G. ., & Tadeu Scarpin, C. (2021). SEIR Subregion Model Analysis: a case study of Curitiba. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 19(6), 1050–1056. Retrieved from https://latamt.ieeer9.org/index.php/transactions/article/view/4405

## Section

Special Issue on Fighting against COVID-19