Analysis and Modeling of Dynamic Behavior of the COVID-19 Outbreak: Study Case of Panama



Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, generalized gradient optimization, mathematical modeling, Novel Coronavirus, parameter estimation, SEIR model


Since the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, worldwide attention has been given to the progression of this new strain of coronavirus, which has reached the entire World. As Panama is one of the most affected countries in Latin América, and at the same time, it has become one of the countries with stricter control and mitigation measures, we have treated Panama as a modeling lab. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed in order to analyze the behavior and provide different possible predictions of the virus infection, based in the case of Panama. Public data from the Ministry of Health has been used with a set of differential equations to characterize the outbreak propagation behavior. Key epidemiological parameters were estimated with some degree of confidence to make predictions of the inflection point and possible time of completion of the outbreak in the country. These parameters were obtained using optimization algorithms (non-linear Generalized Reduced Gradient and evolutionary) in order to obtain the minimum possible measures of standard deviation error and mean square error. These parameters were used in the mathematical model described in this paper and in a global comparison simulator, to expand the comprehensive behavior to other possible cases.


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Author Biographies

Juan Casaboza, Technological University of Panama

Juan C. Casaboza was born in Panama in 1996. He is a researcher of The ERDI Research Group (Radiant energy and irreversible dissipations) at Technological University of Panama (UTP), and his research areas are applied mathematics and simulations. He is currently opting for the engineering degree in electromechanical engineering at the Technological University of Panama (UTP).

Dorindo Elam Cárdenas, Technological University of Panama

Dorindo Elam Cárdenas (M’12) received his engineering degree in electromechanical engineering at the Technological University of Panama (UTP), Panamá in 2004. In 2005 becomes professor of electrical engineering at the Technological University of Panama. In 2009 becomes Certified Fire Protection Specialist (CFPS), international certification awarded by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), U.S.A. In 2011 receives his Doctoral Degree in Engineering Sciences, with a novel research of mathematical modeling of electrical fires and its sources, that is nominated to the Extraordinary Prize of Doctorate at Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelonatech, Spain. In 2014 he completed a Postdoctoral Fellow and research with the University of Texas at Austin, U.S.A., in radiation transport and variable frequency effects of electromagnetic waves in conductors. He has develop professional practice in electrical and mechanical engineering since 2004 to the present in industrial applications. Some of his work include design, installation, and consulting for very large commercial and industrial projects like malls, high-rise buildings, power generating plants, electrical substations and industrial hazardous locations. Dr Cardenas has also performed several mathematical modelings for various applications in radiation, energy, chemistry, and other fundamental physical subjects and applied mathematics. Dr. Cárdenas is member of IEEE, NFPA, IAAI, CFPS and SNI-SENACYT. He is Main Director of The ERDI Research Group, and Leader Researcher at the Technological University of Panama.



How to Cite

Casaboza, J., & Cárdenas, D. E. (2021). Analysis and Modeling of Dynamic Behavior of the COVID-19 Outbreak: Study Case of Panama. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 19(6), 893–900. Retrieved from



Special Issue on Fighting against COVID-19