Analysis and modeling of dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak: study case of Panama
Keywords:Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, generalized gradient optimization, mathematical modeling, Novel Coronavirus, parameter estimation, SEIR model
Since the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, worldwide attention has been given to the progression of this new strain of the coronavirus, which has reached the entire World. As Panama is one of the most affected countries in Latin América, and at the same time, it has become one of the countries with more control and mitigation measures, we have treated Panama as a modeling lab. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed in order to analyze the behavior and provide different possible predictions of the virus infection, based in the case of Panama. Public data from the Ministry of Health has been used with a set of differential equations to characterize the outbreak propagation behavior, key epidemiological parameters were estimated with some degree of confidence to make predictions at the inflection point and possible time of completion of the outbreak in the country. These parameters were obtained by means of optimization algorithms (non-linear Generalized Reduced Gradient and evolutionary) in order to obtain the minimum possible measures of error standard deviation and mean square error. These parameters were used in the mathematical model described in this paper and also in a global comparison simulator, to expand the comprehensive behavior to other possible cases.