Analysis and modeling of dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak: study case of Panama

Authors

Keywords:

Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, generalized gradient optimization, mathematical modeling, Novel Coronavirus, parameter estimation, SEIR model

Abstract

Since the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, worldwide attention has been given to the progression of this new strain of the coronavirus, which has reached the entire World. As Panama is one of the most affected countries in Latin América, and at the same time, it has become one of the countries with more control and mitigation measures, we have treated Panama as a modeling lab. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed in order to analyze the behavior and provide different possible predictions of the virus infection, based in the case of Panama.  Public data from the Ministry of Health has been used with a set of differential equations to characterize the outbreak propagation behavior, key epidemiological parameters were estimated with some degree of confidence to make predictions at the inflection point and possible time of completion of the outbreak in the country. These parameters were obtained by means of optimization algorithms (non-linear Generalized Reduced Gradient and evolutionary) in order to obtain the minimum possible measures of error standard deviation and mean square error. These parameters were used in the mathematical model described in this paper and also in a global comparison simulator, to expand the comprehensive behavior to other possible cases.

Author Biography

Dorindo Elam Cárdenas, Technological University of Panama

Dorindo Elam Cárdenas (M’12) received his engineering degree in electromechanical engineering at the Technological University of Panama (UTP), Panamá in 2004. In 2005 becomes professor of electrical engineering at the Technological University of Panama. In 2009 becomes Certified Fire Protection Specialist (CFPS), international certification awarded by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), U.S.A. In 2011 receives his doctoral degree in engineering, with a novel investigation of  mathematical modeling of electrical fires and its sources, that is nominated to the Extraordinary Prize of Doctorate at Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelonatech, Spain. In 2014 he completed a postdoctoral fellow and research with the University of Texas at Austin, U.S.A., in radiation transport and variable frequency effects of electromagnetic waves in conductors. 

He has develop professional practice in electrical and mechanical engineering since 2004 to the present in industrial applications. Some of his work include design, installation, and consulting for very large commercial and industrial projects like malls, high-rise buildings, power generating plants, electrical substations and industrial hazardous locations.

Dr. Cárdenas is member of IEEE, NFPA, IAAI, CFPS and SNI-SENACYT. Dr. Cardenas is also Main Director of the ERDI Research Group, and Leader Researcher at the Technological University of Panama.

Published

2020-09-21

Issue

Section

Special Issue on Fighting against COVID-19
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